05 / CALIBRATION
self-evolution, quantified.
Brier score · reliability curve · per-category bias — computed from real persisted resolutions. No fabricated data.
RELIABILITY DIAGRAM
predicted probability vs realized frequency. Perfect calibration = the diagonal.
no resolved samples yet — run backfill.
PER-CATEGORY CALIBRATION
| category | n | Brier | avg pred | actual | bias |
|---|
RELIABILITY BUCKETS
| bucket | n | mean pred | actual YES |
|---|
LATEST DREAM CYCLE REPORT
—
no report yet — run dream.
TRACKED MARKETS
| status | quality | YES | outcome | category | market |
|---|